By Callum Ludwig
An eventful election day came to a quick conclusion with the Australian Labor Party set for a second successive term.
The seat of Casey remained on a knife’s edge until late in the night and a late shift even saw the seat still in doubt into Sunday. The ABC had declared the seat had been retained by incumbent MP Aaron Violi but a 12am update reversed this call in an electorate not even considered a ‘Key Seat’ prior to election day. However, Violi has retained the seat according to the AEC’s Tally Room, where all 65 polling places in Casey and 99.99 per cent of votes have had a two-candidate-preferred (TCP) vote count undertaken, beating out Labor’s Naomi Oakey 52.72 per cent to 47.28 per cent.
It was a nervous race for Violi, though after a remarkable shift saw Violi previously leading the TCP count 50.98 per cent to Labor candidate Naomi Oakley’s 49.02 per cent at 11.30pm on Saturday 3 May only for half an hour to be behind as counting finished on Saturday.
The ABC had called the seat for Violi with 50 per cent of the vote counted, when he held 50.6 per cent to Oakley’s 49.4 per cent, expecting him to increase his margin to 1.6 per cent. However, by midnight, Oakley was ahead of Violi by a mere 262 votes (50.2 per cent of the vote). At the time of print, The Greens Merran Blair had 10.9 per cent of the first preference vote and independent Claire Ferres-Miles is not far behind with 10.82 per cent. They are followed by One Nation’s Ambere Livori (4.98 per cent), Trumper of Patriots Phillip Courtis (3.19 per cent), Family First’s Dan Nebauer (2.92 per cent) and the Animal Justice Party’s Chloe Bond (1.99 per cent).
In the Outer East, the Labor landslide can be seen in an important gain and retain.
In Deakin, the Liberal’s Michael Sukkar, who was Shadow Minister for Housing among other roles and had held the seat since 2013, has lost to Labor’s Matt Gregg at his second attempt. With 99.85 per cent of ballots having had a TCP count, Gregg has 53.57 per cent of the TCP count to Sukkar’s 46.43 per cent. The ABC called the seat with 44.9 per cent of the vote counted and Gregg holding 56.4 per cent of the preference count. The 3.59 per cent swing to Labor proved fatal for the incumbent Liberal MP. The Greens candidate Amy Mills received 11.91 per cent of the first preference vote and independent Jess Ness gained 7.44 per cent of the vote at the first time of asking. One Nation’s Anne Cooke (2.45 per cent), Family First Richard Griffith-Jones (1.77 per cent), Trumpet of Patriots Milton Wilde (1.48 per cent) and Libertarian Will Vandermeer (1.36 per cent) round out the Deakin vote count.
Mary Doyle has held the seat of Aston which she gained at a by-election in 2023 in another strong Labor result despite expectations that Liberal candidate Manny Cicchiello could win it back. With 100 per cent of the Aston vote counted, Doyle lead the TCP count 53.15 per cent (5.76 per cent swing to) to Cicchiello’s 46.85 per cent. The Greens’ Reuben Steen garnered 11.37 per cent of the first preference vote and is followed by One Nation’s John De Wacht (3.25 per cent), Family First’s Craig Manners (2.63 per cent), Independent Mark Grondman (2.25 per cent), Trumpet of Patriots Steve Desveaux (2.15 per cent), Independent Andrew Williams (1.82 per cent) and Libertarian David Fawcett (0.96 per cent).
The Liberals did have another win in the Outer East, with Jason Wood retaining La Trobe despite a strong challenge from Labor candidate and former Cardinia Shire Council Mayor Jeff Springfield. With 98.02 per cent of ballots counted, Wood had 52.64 per cent of the TCP count, holding on against Springfield’s 47.36 per cent despite a 5.79 per cent swing against him. The Greens’ Jamie Longmuir has 13 per cent of first preference votes, followed by One Natin’s Leo Panetta (7.39 per cent), Trumpet of Patriots Gregory Hardiman (4.35 per cent) and Family First’s Ron Malhotra (3.4 per cent).
Just after 9.30pm, Liberal Leader Peter Dutton conceded the defeat of his party and himself in his own seat of Dickson.
“We didn’t do well enough during this campaign, that much is obvious tonight and I accept full responsibility,” he said.
“I called the Prime Minister to congratulate him on his success tonight,”
“There are good members and candidates who have lost their seats and I am sorry for that.”
Returning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in his victory speech at around 10pm that in this time of global uncertainty Australians have chosen optimism and determination.
“Now, at election time, parties and candidates ask people to make a choice and inevitably, the campaign and the coverage is about our differences and our disagreements that is the nature of our democracy, and it is the role of the media who serve it,” he said.
“But now that the Australian people have made their clear choice let us all reflect on what we have in common,”
“Because no matter who you voted for, no matter where you live, no matter how you worship or who you love, whether you belong to a culture that is known and cared for this great continent for 65,000 years, or you have chosen our nation as your home and enriched our society with your contribution, we are all Australians.
